Goodbye Lowell

Dan:

It looks like Mike Lowell is headed to the Texas Rangers. Multiple reports have him headed to the Rangers for minor league catcher Max Ramirez, while it appears the Sox might be getting close to signing free-agent third-baseman Adrian Beltre.

While I’ve advocated getting rid of Lowell this offseason, that doesn’t mean I’m not a fan. Lowell has been a great contributor to this team since 2006. Considering this guy was a throw-in in the Beckett deal, and looked so bad his first spring training some Boston baseball media geniuses thought he’d be cut, what he has done for the Sox must be applauded. He might be slower than geology, but he’s given us a solid bat, excellent defense before his injury, and a top-notch clubhouse presence. He will be remembered fondly by Sox Nation.

Meanwhile, I am cringing at the thought of signing Adrian Beltre. Outside of his highly-suspicious 2004 season — a contract year, mind you — this one-time uber-prospect’s career has been a colossal disappointment. He might not command the sizeable contract he got in 2005, but the Sox will still be overpaying for what he brings to Boston. And considering the Sox just signed a shortstop (Scutaro) who has also had a questionable career, I have real concerns with this team going forward.

But perhaps my biggest concern with signing Beltre is it leaves no room to make a deal for that power-hitting bat the Sox so desperately need. Understand, adding Beltre’s .260 average and 23 homers is no answer to this team’s offensive problems. Should the Sox resign Bay, or bring in Matt Holliday, in left, then have Beltre at third and Scutaro at short, they will only have a marginally better offense then they had last year — not good enough to bring home a championship.

Now, the catcher situation might be interesting. The minor leaguer the Sox are getting from the Rangers, Max Ramirez, might be ready for primetime (although his defense reportedly needs work). Are the Sox bringing him in as insurance in case Tek gets injured this year? Or insurance that they don’t resign Victor Martinez? Or insurance in case Tek just can’t perform anymore? The Sox might be thinking they’ll give Tek a chance through May, and if he can’t perform, expect a press conference where they regret to announce they have to cut him, and thank him for his service.

Uneasy Feeling

Dan:

At this point, I’m beginning to like the Sox chances of re-signing Bay. With the Yankees landing Curtis Granderson, I doubt they will make a play for Bay, thereby taking the biggest financial competitor out of the way. I doubt Anaheim or Seattle will outbid for him.

The problem for the Sox are other fronts. No movement yet on Adrian Gonzalez. And, in an interview yesterday, Theo talked about 2010 as a bridge year to the prospects on their way up. While I like the idea of the Sox having super-prospects help the team in the future (provided they become actual, talented major league players — a big “if” with all prospects), it makes me wonder if 2010 will just be a rebuilding here. To be a true contender for a title next year, they need to improve their offense. They also need a new thirdbaseman, as Lowell will not perform well over a full 162-game season. His best days are behind him. Same with Papi.

Add to all that the contracts of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez are up after next year. This all creates a treacherous time for the Sox, which, hopefully, Theo will navigate with his usual intellect (with the obvious exception of shortstops), To me, it’s beginning to look like next year will be a lost year — they might make the playoffs, but likely won’t have the offense to go far.

——-

Meanwhile, what was Arizona thinking dealing Max Scherzer? Last year they had a terrible year . . . a year in which I picked them to go to the World Series based on the strength of their pitching. Of course, Brandon Webb went down. But, this year they had a chance to have three aces, Webb, Haren and Scherzer – a young, strikeout pitcher with a world of potential ahead of him. The D-back are also poised for the baseball bounceback — the phenomenon you often see where a good team one year vastly underperforms the next, only to dramatically bounce back the third year (see the Indians of 2005-2007). I don’t see how Edwin Jackson – while a good pitcher – is anything but a step back from Scherzer.

Coming Up Short At Short

Dan:

Here we go again.

It’s hard to argue with much Theo Epstein has done in his brilliant tenure as Red Sox GM since 2003 . . . that is, with the glaring exception of one position: shortstop.

For some reason, when Epstein is putting together his team, it’s like the shortstop position is a vortex of confusion that sucks Theo in and makes him do strange things. After 2004, instead of bringing back Orlando Cabrera – who had proven he could perform in Boston and would have been cheaper money than the alternative – Theo decided to go big and try the premier shortstop on the market: Edgar Renteria. (To be honest, although I wanted Cabrera back, I liked the Renteria signing.) Of course, after imploding, Rent-An-Error was shipped out of town the following season. In 2006, Alex Gonzalez dazzled us with his play, but after the season Theo became enamored with a shortstop with a sporadic past and who had slumped badly toward the end of the previous season: Julio Lugo. To make matters worse, Theo inexplicably signed him to big money and relatively long years when he didn’t have to. We all know how this ended.

Now, after solidifying the shortstop position again last year, Alex Gonzalez has gone to Toronto, and us Sox fans are left scratching our heads. Toronto got him for one-year at 2.7 mill, and they hold a CLUB OPTION for a second-year at 2.5 mill. What’s crazy is that this deal would have been perfect for Boston; they’d solidify the troubled position for the next year (or two if THEY wanted), while their hyped prospects develop. Even crazier is that reports are that the Sox were willing to pay Gonzalez $3 mill a year if they didn’t find a suitable free agent replacement. (Of course, why on Earth would Gonzalez want to hang around and wait?)

Now it sounds like Theo is at it again. Word is the Sox are chasing Marco Scutaro, a 34-year-old shortstop coming off a career year. There is so much wrong with this . . .

First of all, guys who have career years in their mid-30s never consistently reproduce those years. (Gary Matthews Jr. anyone?) And middle infielders? Forget it.

Given his career year last year, Scutaro is NOT worth the price, or the years, it will take to sign him. And he WILL NOT produce at that level again.

Scutaro has had a hard time getting into and staying in major league lineups in his career — and there’s always a good reason for that. He played 144 games last year and 145 the year before that. The most he’d ever played before 2008 (at the age of 32) was 118 games. He hit 12 homers last year, but has averaged 7. He hit .282 last year, but usually hits in the .260s.

AND he’s 34.

Mark Loretta was a productive, established middle infielder for years in San Diego and then 2006 with Boston, when he was excellent in his mid-30s. Soon after he was platooning in Houston. Middle infielders at this age don’t last, even when they have produced before. Marco Scutaro has never produced before.

Signing Scutaro has disaster written all over it. And now, even if he doesn’t sign with the Sox, who is going to play short? Do we really feel comfortable now having Jed Lowrie as our starting shortstop to begin the year. The best option was bringing back Gonzalez.

Theo has blown it again.

Shopping Lowell

Dan:

A report in yesterday’s Boston Globe said the Red Sox are currently shopping Mike Lowell, and may even be willing to pick up half of his remaining salary. Obviously, this looks like they are laying the groundwork to deal Lowell immediately once they are able to work out a deal with San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.

But I wonder if the Sox feel so uncomfortable by Lowell’s health issues these last two seasons and by his rapidly vanishing range at third base that they feel they need to replace him at third next year regardless of whether they land Gonzalez or not. I’m certainly leaning that way. It looks like Lowell’s days in Boston are over.

Also, I know I’ve said this before, but with the free-agent frenzy ready to kick into high gear next week I’ll say it again: I have a really bad feeling about this off-season. The most cause for concern is the vision of Jason Bay in pinstripes.

Face it, it makes all the sense in the world for the Yankees to go after Bay. They are at the end of both Damon’s and Matsui’s contracts. Getting Bay would be a huge upgrade for them. Even more, by signing Bay the Yankees would be dealing a CRUSHING blow to their rivals, the Red Sox. I really don’t see how this doesn’t happen.

If this does happen, you can all but kiss next season goodbye. Even with Bay, the Sox needed to upgrade their offense. Should they sign Gonzalez, but lose Bay, they are essentially only breaking even. Not to say that Gonzalez and Bay are equal; they aren’t. Gonzalez is a premier offensive force. But the Sox offense needs both those bats to compete with the Yankees. Signing Matt Holliday to replace him isn’t the answer. The way Boras is talking, he would cost too much. Plus, his Colorado years and his early season slump in Oakland leave a lot of questions as to what kind of hitter he really is.

Should the Sox lose Bay, 2010 is a rebuilding year.

The Philadelphia Pedroes

Dan:

As a Red Sox fan, it’s been a tough October. But tonight’s match-up featuring ol’ pal Pedro Martinez against the hated New York Yankees is easy to get excited about.

It certainly conjures up memories of glory days gone by. For Sox fans — in fact, for all “baseball” fans — the Pedro Martinez era in Boston was immensely exciting. Pedro provided us with arguably the greatest stretch of pitching in baseball history, and along the way left us with enduring memories — many against our most-hated rival, the New York Yankees. It’s impossible to forget him drubbing Roger Clemens in Game 3 of the 1999 ALCS. Or his 17-strikeout, 1-hit gem in New York; or his epic battle with Roger Clemens in 2000 that ended with Trot Nixon swatting a game-winning homer. Or the Zimmer game. Or his great performance in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS that unfortunately gets overshadowed by Grady Little’s all-time absentee-management moment.

Now that our 2009 Sox have been swept aside in the playoffs, Sox fans have worried we’d be stuck watching the Yankees waltz to a championship. Now, after Cliff Lee’s amazing performance in Game 1, we see our old hero — Pedro Martinez — stepping up in a spot where he can slay the Yankees once again. We know he isn’t the same pitcher he once was. But maybe . . . just maybe . . . he can recapture that magic for one more night.

I’ll certainly be watching to find out.

Preliminary Off-Season Thoughts

Dan:

In the words of Mark McGwuire: “I’m not here to talk about the past.”

Let’s, for a moment, forget that ALDS with the Angels ever happened. Instead, let’s bring hope back to Red Sox Nation and talk about the future . . . unless the Sox fail to bring back Jason Bay. Then forget about hope and save yourselves, cuz this ship is sinking. So, let’s take a look at issues the Sox face this winter.

JASON BAY – The Red Sox absolutely, positively NEED to bring back Jason Bay. Rarely will I say the Sox “need” anybody. But the fact is the team’s weakest link this year was its offense. If the Sox lose their best offensive player (Bay), they likely won’t be able to make the offensive upgrades they need next season. The free agent market for bats this season is especially thin (forget Matt Holliday, the most overrated bat out there). And if the Sox land a good bat in a trade – like Adrian Gonzalez – but lose Bay, they’ll be swapping bats rather than making a significant offensive improvement next year (which would be keeping Bay and getting a Gonzalez). What scares me to death is there is no reason the Yankees won’t let Johnny Damon walk and instead throw a ton of money at Bay – which improves the Yankees offense AND hurts the Red Sox. This scares me.

JONATHON PAPELBON – I’ve been shocked at the number of people clammering to trade Paps since his blown save the other day. Sox Nation needs to get a grip. As I’ve said before, every great closer has blown big games (Rivera, Eck, Hoffman, Gossage). What makes them great is their ability to brush it off and come back. Papelbon has shown he can do it. Why would you mess with that? Did we learn nothing from the Closer By Committee fiasco that started the Theo administration in early 2003? It takes a certain type of mentality (or craziness) to be a closer, and Paps has that. Bard has great stuff, but we don’t know if he has the mental toughness to be a closer. He could instead be the next Billy Koch. That being said, the promise of Bard does give the Sox flexibility should it take dealing a Papelbon to bring a bigtime bat like Adrian Gonzalez in return.

ADRIAN GONZALEZ – In case you haven’t yet noticed, I want the Sox to back the truck up to land San Diego firstbaseman Adrian Gonzalez. He is a young, dynamic bat that could help this offense. And San Diego will be hiring a new GM (Jed Hoyer?) soon who will likely be looking to stock up on young talent. Slot A-Gonz into first, move Youk to third and . . .

MIKE LOWELL – He’s been a great player for the Sox for these past few seasons, but his best years are well-behind him. Injuries make him unreliable and limit his mobility in the field. If the Sox can find a better bat, they need to move on. The only way I see Lowell staying in that situation is if he was a platoon DH with . . .

DAVID ORTIZ – Undoubtedly my favorite baseball player of all-time. So it pains me to say this. I know he came back big in the second-half, and had impressive numbers as a result. Still, how many meaningful times did Papi come through this year against good pitching. Not many. He wasn’t a factor in the playoffs, and didn’t look like there was any hope he could be. Papi will never again be the great hitter he once was, and I’d say it was time for the Sox to move on, EXCEPT . . . tell me where the Sox are going to get another DH to replace him given how weak the free-agent market is. Assuming they keep Bay, the Sox are going to need to find a home for a new bat, and that will be in either Lowell’s or Ortiz’s slot. Given Lowell’s health issues, I wouldn’t be surprised if they dump Lowell, keep Ortiz at DH this year, and then try to replace him after next season.

JASON VARITEK – It’s hard to watch cornerstones of the 2004 championship team like Papi and Tek age and have their skills diminish. At this point, everyone has to accept that Tek is done. Even, probably, Tek. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him retire this offseason (but in some way that keeps that $3 mill option). At this point, I’m not sure the Sox offense can afford to have him as the backup catcher.

A World Gone Wrong

Dan:

I don’t even know where to begin. Actually, as I think about it, I realize I’m still not in a good place; not in any state where I feel okay talking about it. I still want to pretend it didn’t happen and that baseball doesn’t exist. The more I think about it, the more I want to throw up.

How do you explain baseball sometimes? On paper, this Red Sox team was stacked. But all year long there just seemed to be something missing; some spark of life. That certainly was the case in the playoffs.

The only thing I feel comfortable enough to say right now is this: This series loss isn’t on Papelbon. Every great closer has blown playoff saves — Eck, Rivera, Gossage, Hoffman, the list goes on. The blame should fall on the offense. One run in the first two games is inexcusable no matter who is on the mound.

For the Sox brass looking to make an improvement, look no further than a power-hitting first baseman. To acquire an Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder, they’ll have to do it in a trade. But it can be done. (Then move Youk to third.)

I don’t want to talk about this anymore . . .

Don’t Panic (Yet)

Dan:

Sure, the Red Sox offense looked pathetic last night. Extremely pathetic. But this was a case of the Sox running into a talented pitcher who was as good as he could be. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the other team.

The reaction to Game 1 results is always overblown, especially in a short series. When the Sox took Game 1 against the Indians in 1998, fans talked of a sweep. Three games later, the Sox were eliminated. Twice this decade the Twins have taken a Game 1 against the Yankees; both times the Yanks easily won the series.

You can’t help but like the Beckett – Weaver matchup tonight. If the Sox take it, they’ve earned a split and gained home field advantage. Then the Angels have to try to win at Fenway — not easy for them. Of course, should the unthinkable happen, then it WILL be time to panic.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Blog

Dan:

Hey all, I’ve started another blog with a Yankee friend of mine called, surprisingly, Red Sox vs. Yankees. The site is http://redsoxvsyankees.mlblogs.com. It’ll be on ongoing debate/discussion about all things Yankees and Red Sox, for both Sox and Yank fans. Check it out, and help give Sox fans some representation in the debate with Yankee fans.

Ready For October

Dan:

Here it is again: the most wonderful time of the year. October playoff baseball is upon us, and our beloved Sox are back in the mix. We almost take that for granted now. But we shouldn’t.

I don’t know why I have such a bad feeling about this series with the Angels. I shouldn’t. The Sox have the edge in almost every aspect of the game, and they man-handled the Angels last month. Still, it’s almost like the Angels are due, which scares me.

Anyway, here are my playoff picks:

American League:

Red Sox def. Angels – The Angels will run like crazy, but you can’t steal first. The Sox rotation and bullpen are insanely deep, and their bats are stacked. I’d pick the Sox to sweep, but my heart says in four.

Yankees def. Twins – The Twins have a ton of momentum, but they could sure use Justin Morneau right now. They haven’t won a game in New York since July of 2007, which means they could be due. But I think the Yankees are too much and should sweep them.

Red Sox def. Yankees – Of course. The playoffs usually come down to pitching, and the Sox have a deeper rotation and bullpen. I think they win in six.

National League:

Phillies def. Rockies – This is BY FAR the toughest series to call. I went back and forth on this several times. I like the Rockies, and they’ve been so strong in the second half. I also think Ubaldo Jimenez is a great up-and-coming ace. But the Phillies are very well-rounded. Ultimately, I think whoever wins this series wins the National League, and I don’t want to see the Sox and Rockies in the Series again. So I picked the Phils in who knows how many, although I’m leaning toward 4.

Cardinals def. Dodgers – I’m not terribly impressed with either of these teams, and the Dodgers really struggled down the stretch. Cards should win in 4.

Phillies def. Cardinals – I haven’t been a believer in the Cardinals all season, and even though they’ll make it to the NLCS, I still am not a believer. The NL Central was a HORRIBLE division this year. Phils in 5.

WORLD SERIES:

Red Sox def. Phillies – Sure, call me a homer. But the fact is the Sox are the most well-rounded team in baseball. And the National League is the junior division. Sox take it in 5 games.

(MVP – Jason Bay)