Theo, Trade Cla Bucholz*
(* = provided it is the right deal)
Dan:
We all know the significance of superstar prospects like Cla Bucholz. They are hard to come by, and once you have them, you don’t deal them away . . . well, unless the right deal comes along.
Bucholz could turn out to be a great pitcher (he kind of looks like Oral Hershiser). He could also turn out to be the next Rick Ankiel, Jared Wright, Oliver Perez, Edwin Jackson, the list of busts goes on. That’s the thing with prospects: You just don’t know.
Bucholz shined in his brief time with the big club this year. (H)ell, he threw a no-hitter. He is all but certain to be in the rotation next year, if not to start the year then likely by the second-half. His value will never be higher. Therefore, the Sox should consider what he could bring in a trade right now. And, in this offseason when there aren’t many good free agents available and teams like the Twins and Marlins need to deal superstars, the time is right for a move like this.
Trade opportunities abound this offseason. But the only two players I would consider dealing Bucholz for would be Johan Santana or Miguel Cabrera, and only if the Sox could negotiate contract extensions as part of the deal. For several years, Santana has been baseball’s best pitcher, building a Hall-of-Fame caliber resume along the way. The Sox are hoping Bucholz will someday be two-thirds of the pitcher Santana is right now — and that two-thirds would be a great pitcher. That’s how good Santana is.
Meanwhile, if you’re not familiar with Miguel Cabrera, he is the best young hitter in baseball, hands-down. And he’s only 24. When you take his offensive numbers over the past four years and combine them with his young age, the Sox would be trading for a position player who is even more valuable than Big Papi or Manny. (Take off the homer cap folks; this might sound like sacriledge, but it is true.)
With a contract extension, this, of course, would cost money. Cabrera would probably need upwards of $17 million a year. Santana would need $20 million a year. There are few players worth that money plus the prospect of Cla Bucholz. Cabrera and Santana are those players.
All this being said, we do have another prospect by the name of Jon Lester that teams might be interested in. Given Bucholz’s rapid rise through the minors and success in the bigs, and given Lester’s pitch count problems, I imagine teams looking to deal their superstars would ask for Bucholz instead of Lester. If not, I would certainly deal Lester before I deal Bucholz.
RED SOX & MLB (by FANS ON THE FIELD .net) 