Tagged: Josh Beckett
Don’t Panic (Yet)
Dan:
Sure, the Red Sox offense looked pathetic last night. Extremely pathetic. But this was a case of the Sox running into a talented pitcher who was as good as he could be. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the other team.
The reaction to Game 1 results is always overblown, especially in a short series. When the Sox took Game 1 against the Indians in 1998, fans talked of a sweep. Three games later, the Sox were eliminated. Twice this decade the Twins have taken a Game 1 against the Yankees; both times the Yanks easily won the series.
You can’t help but like the Beckett – Weaver matchup tonight. If the Sox take it, they’ve earned a split and gained home field advantage. Then the Angels have to try to win at Fenway — not easy for them. Of course, should the unthinkable happen, then it WILL be time to panic.
It’s A Beautiful Day
Dan:
Is it me, or are the clouds beginning to break?
I don’t want to do this. After the way this rollercoaster season has gone, after all the streaks of joy followed by streaks of gut-wrenching disappointment, my brain warns not to get too invested in this team again. But my heart . . .
The fact is, however you want to slice it, as we stand here today things are starting to look mighty good for these Boston Red Sox. After most of us wrote off his 2009 season as a bust (and many wrote him off all-together), Daisuke Matsuzaka last night turned in the most dominant performance of his Red Sox career . . . and against the team Boston will face to start October. That was the Daisuke we had expected to come to Boston a few years ago (minus a 96-mph fastball, which looks like it will never come). And it’s a performance that comes at a time when Boston’s ace – Josh Beckett – looks like he’s starting to gets his legs under him again, and two other pitchers – Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz – are now pitching like aces. I know it’s just one start, but if the Daisuke we get the rest of the year is anything close to the one we saw last night, a rotation with that guy, Beckett, Lester and Buchholz will be untouchable.
These Sox have now won 6 in a row, and they’ve put 5 1/2 games between them and the Rangers now, all but wrapping up the Wild Card with last night’s win. Meanwhile, Papi is doing his best to make us all believe that he really is Papi again. And, with the addition of Wagner, the Sox now have superior arms to close out opponents for the last three innings of the game. In fact, as Tito makes out his playoff roster, his biggest challenge will be squeezing all that bullpen talent onto the team. Some will be left off, but it’s a nice problem to have.
The bottom line is, as we wake up this morning, the Boston Red Sox all of a sudden look like the best team in all of baseball again. And, being the middle of September, they got here just in time.
Quick Sox Before Mailing My Taxes
Dan:
Step away from the ledge, Red Sox fans. It is April 15. I know the Sox are 2 and 6, and Papi and co. are struggling. But take a deep breath and consider these points:
- Two Aprils ago, people wanted to ship Pedroia back to Pawtucket.
- Two Aprils ago, people thought J.D. Drew was the second-coming of Carl Yastremski.
- Nine Aprils ago it looked like Carl Everett was the next Ken Griffey Jr.
- Nine Aprils ago we thought Wilton Veras was the Sox thirdbaseman of the future. Remember him?
- During their 86-year championship drought, how many April championships did the Red Sox win? Lots.
Sure, all 162 games mean the same. But if the Sox went through this same stretch in June or July, nobody would be too concerned. Every year, fans magnify the importance of what happens in April, and by Memorial Day people don’t even remember what happened in April. This is a good Sox team with a ton of depth. So talk to me come Memorial Day.
Meanwhile, Daisuke’s health woes have to be cause for concern. But this is where the depth of the Sox could play a huge role in their success this season. If he needs to be out for any length of time, the Sox can turn to Clay Bucholz, who looked like a world-beater this Spring. They also have Michael Bowden in the minors, and, if things get bad, their bullpen is so good they could slide Justin Masterson into the rotation without missing a beat.
BTW, the Beckett suspension is bogus.
Rest Of Dan’s Predictions
Dan:
Alright, with the season almost upon us, it’s time to wrap up this whole prediction business. I’ve already listed my AL East and AL Central picks. I’ve included them in the rest of the picks below, but if you want to find out my well-researched, brilliantly-reasoned reasons for them, you’ll have to go back to the old posts. So, without further ado, I present to you the rest of the case for my baseball genius:
AL East
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jay
Orioles
(see old post for explanation)
AL Central
Tigers
Indians
Royals
Twins
White Sox
(see old post for explanation)
AL West
Angels
Athletics
Rangers
Mariners
This is another division where almost anything can happen. The Angels are not as good as they were last year – lost K-Rod and Teixeira, and the heart of their lineup is getting old. And the rest of the division has gotten better – the A’s added some offense, Rangers finally have some young pitching ready to take the stage, and you have to expect the Mariners’ Erik Bedard will be better this year. Still you have to like the Angels track record, especially in light of the questions surrounding the other teams. Oakland will find out Matt Holliday is overrated away from Coors, and you can’t depend on rookie pitchers for your starting rotation. Rangers pitchers could improve, or just not be there yet. And Seattle still lacks the offense. Overall, this will not be a strong division. In fact, the East appears heads and shoulders above the rest of the AL.
NL East
Mets
Phillies
Marlins
Braves
Nationals
The Mets can hit, and with Mike Pelfrey ready to arrive as an elite talent behind Johan Santana, not to mention a reinvented bullpen with K-Rod and Putz, the Mets should win this division by five games. Expect the Phillies to be in the wildcard mix, though. The Marlins have a bunch of good young pitchers, and that should carry them past the Braves, who had an active, yet foolish, offseason.
NL Central
Cubs
Reds
Brewers
Astros
Cardinals
Pirates
The Cubs are way-above the rest of the NL Central. It would take a curse for them not to win this division. How the rest of this division shakes out is anybody’s guess (a common theme this year). I expect a comeback year from Aaron Harang, and the emergence of their young pitching staff to carry them to second place. The Brewers take a step back; they can’t thrust all their hopes on young Gallardo. I really, really, really wanted to pick the Pirates to surprise. And, until recently, I had them in second. Yes, it was based more on emotion, but they do have a cast of super-talented young pitchers . . . if they can ever put it together. But, ultimately, they don’t have the offensive depth to mimic Tampa’s success from last year.
AL West
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants
Rockies
Padres
The Dback already have two of the game’s best pitchers in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. Throw in uber-talented strikeout artist Max Scherzer, and that’s one impressive staff. The Dodgers have a core of excellent young pitching and hitting talent, and Manny will produce — but he’ll be much closer to our Manny. The rest of the division is scuffling. (But keep an eye on Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez — breakout year.)
AL Wildcard: Yankees
NL Wildcard: Dodgers
AL Champion: Red Sox
NL Champion: Diamondbacks
Both these teams have great pitching staffs and, depending on how Scherzer pitches, the edge in starting pitching might go to the Dbacks. Of course, with trades, injuries, etc., nobody knows what these staffs will look like come October. Still, I like the depth of the Sox offense and bullpen. The Series will go 6 games,
World Champion: Your Boston Red Sox
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Carlos Beltran
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett (maybe Scott Kazmir)
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
Moving Forward
Dan:
Let’s face it: The Sox were banged up, and the Devil Rays were the better team. They’re probably going to win the World Series. Just freakin’ wonderful. I’m not in a good place right now. Let’s stop talking about it.
Anyway . . . . . on a positive note, once we get past this bothersome World Series, we get to embark on one of the most exciting times of the year — the Hot Stove Season. It’s the kind of thing blogging was invented for. So, let’s just get beyond this thing we’re not talking about and move forward. Let’s see what Boston’s current weaknesses are and what we can hope to expect from this Hot Stove Season.
The Problems
Papi’s Wrist — There’s no offseason solution to this. All we can do is hope and pray that Papi’s wrist is better by next season and he becomes the hitting terror he once was. But the cold hard truth here is wrist injuries are scary things for hitters. There was once a future-Hall-of-Famer named Nomar Garciaparra who won a batting title with the highest average for a right-handed hitter since Joe DiMaggio. Then Nomar was hit by a pitch and messed up his wrist. Goodbye Hall of Fame title; Hello title of Mr. Mia Hamm.
Jacoby Ellsbury — This is another one of those wait-and-see situations. Luckily, Ellsbury’s offensive struggles this year stemmed from his youth instead of any injury. We know he can play. And we know young players do struggle at times. Eventually, Ellsbury will be fine.
Jason Varitek — Whether the Sox resign him or he leaves in free agency, the team needs to find his replacement now (actually, I believe I said last year at this time the time was last offseason). Even if he stays, his best days are far behind him. And his performance is only going to get worse in the coming years. He is a great catcher, but the he-calls-a-great-game thing only works if he’s hitting +.240 . . . not .220.
Mike Lowell — I will likely catch some serious hate here. I love Mike Lowell as much as anybody. And, sure, everybody gets injured and he’ll probably come back at 100 percent next season and have a great year. But all the more reason to trade him. Lowell has had a great run in Boston, but he’s not a guy you can bank on year in and year out; over his whole career he has had his up’s and down’s. Fact is, he’s not getting any younger, and you can expect more common injuries and declining production the next few seasons. The good thing is Lowell has trade value. He has put up great numbers the past few years, he has two years remaining on his contract, and his salary is manageable. And Theo has long coveted the idea of a power-hitting first-baseman. Which leads us to . . .
The Solutions
Sign Mark Texeira — Texeira is a young, switch-hitting, power-hitting first baseman who could be a huge addition to a questionable Sox offense. Of course, in this situation you deal away Lowell. Sure it hurts, but imagine a lineup with Pedroia, Ortiz, Texeira, Youk, Bay and Drew as your 2-7 hitters. October 2009, here we come. The only question is how insane the Yankees will go this year. They have money coming off the books too, and a Wall-Streetesque situation of the rich getting richer with huge dollars coming in next season from their new ballpark, they could put up insane money to sign every free agent they want. Let’s hope they exercise some sanity.
Trade for Saltalamacchia — The Rangers have too many good, young catchers and need to deal. The Red Sox have the need for a catcher and the goods to offer. Salty has been one of the most highly-touted prospects in recent years. And although he has struggled somewhat at the big-league level, he is still extremely young, and those struggles might just have brought his value down enough to secure a deal. By the same token, thankfully Coco Crisp’s performance in the second-half and October may have upped his value where teams may be interested in grabbing him and a prospect.
Trade for Peavy — Yeah, I know. We have a boatload of starting pitching. We have Lester, Beckett, Matsuzaka . . . and then a lot of questions. Schilling won’t be back. Wakefield is too much of a wildcard to depend on at this point. And you can never . . . NEVER . . . depend on unproven youngsters to fill out your rotation (ask the Yanks how Hughes, Kennedy and Joba carried them this year). This offseason, let the Yankees throw boatloads of cash at C.C., D-Lowe and Burnett. I’ll take dealing some of our young arms to the Padres for Peavy. If you hate dealing prospects, remember you never know how they’ll turn out. Wasn’t Casey Fossum going to be the next Tom Glavine?
Game 7 . . . Again
Dan:
I am so confused. Three days ago the Red Sox weren’t just losing, they were disappearing . . . completely disintegrating before our very eyes. Their offense had long ago left town, and their starting pitching was a train wreck.
And then, just as I told my wife I had given up and was going to bed, they reappeared like the resurrected ghost of the 2007 champions. The Game 5 comeback left me in a volatile state of ever-changing emotions — one minute I was living in the euphoria of the greatest comeback in ALCS history; the next I was enduring the horror of accepting I turned down tickets to that game; and then there was the grief, understanding that while the comeback was fun, it was one game and the chances of coming back from another 3-1 deficit were slim, especially considering we had The Shadow of Josh Beckett going up against James Shields in Game 6.
But the Sox kept plugging along. Beckett — who is at best 80 percent of himself — stepped up like injured Pedro against the Indians in the 1999 ALDS and He Of The Bloody Sock in the 2004 ALCS. He gutted out five innings, our bullpen stepped up, and we managed to score with some clutch hits (although with all the men we left on base, I never felt good about our chances until the game was over).
And now we somehow — SOMEHOW — find ourselves in Game 7, with Jon Lester facing the emotional Matt Garza, and all the pressure of a monumental collapse hanging over the head of the young Devil Rays. And again the Sox have sucked me back in. They have got me staring at another late night, apologizing to my wife in advance for the screaming and cussing I will do in both good and bad spots, and thinking that maybe, just maybe, they can somehow do it again.
Looking Ahead
Dan:
First, let’s get that uncomfortable part out of the way . . .
Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. This is a deep team with a potent lineup — I mean, Upton, Pena, Longoria, Crawford? Ridiculous. They play great defense all around; not a Howie Kendrick in the bunch. And they have an excellent core of starting pitchers, with David Price set to arrive next year. This is a team built to compete for the next several years. (But expect them to take a step back next year, before coming back to seriously contend again in 2010. You heard it here first.)
It’s now on to the World Series, where hopefully the Phillies will crush Tampa Bay.
Sure, it’s disappointing the Red Sox didn’t make it back to the Series, especially against a solid franchise like Philly. But the fact is this Red Sox team WAS good enough to win the World Series. Unfortunately, they were banged up in October. It’s never good to lose a bat like Mike Lowell and have to replace him with a Mark Kotsay. It’s obvious to everyone both Papi and Beckett aren’t right. And Ellsbury is just slumping at the wrong time. That’s baseball. Good teams get banged up and slump. Teams like the ’06 Cardinals have .190 hitters suddenly hit .380 in October and have Jeff Weaver pitch like Sandy Koufax for a month. This baseball is a funny game.
Luckily, we have two recent world championships to comfort us. Remember the days when this loss would have led to a city of heartbreak and tears? And while it is sad to end the season like this — especially knowing this team could have won it all — we now have the luxary of just saying this just wasn’t our year . . . and we have the comfort of knowing we’ll be back in the mix next year.
Playoff Butterflies and Goodbye Yankee Stadium
Dan:
- One Red Sox win or Yankee loss away from punching our ticket to October, and I can’t help but have mixed feelings about what lies ahead. In 2007, while realizing the Indians and Yankees could both pose a threat, almost everyone in Sox Nation believed the Sox at least had the better team going into the playoffs. In 2004, while we had 86 years of disappointing history and the Yankee aura to overcome, Sox fans believed we had a team that was equal to — if not superior to — the Yanks. But this year is different. On paper, you have to like how the Sox match-up with anyone. With Daisuke as the Number Three starter behind Lester and Beckett, they have deep starting pitching. Their bullpen is flawed, but can still match-up with anyone else’s. And they have a deep lineup. But both Anaheim and Tampa Bay manhandled the Sox this season. And if that doesn’t worry you, their sub-.500 record on the road and their likely spot as the Wild Card team should. Getting to the World Series through Anaheim and Tampa Bay is going to be a tough road.
- Bud Selig must be thanking his stars the Sox are in the playoffs instead of the Twins. Imagine an AL playoffs with the contraction-candidate Twins, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and their total of 15,000 fans, the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles in California and Anywhere Else They Might Be Able To Scrape Together Some Fans (a franchise who didn’t have more than a dozen fans prior to 2002), and the Chicago White Sox, who when they won the Series in 2005 had “thousands” of fans turn out to see the parade (as opposed to “millions”). Who would MLB get for sponsors? Pete’s Tire Barn Discount Outlet?
- While people complained about the final game at Yankee Stadium happening now instead of the end of the season, I think it worked out well. That way people were able to focus on the event, which it deserved. If it was the final game of the season, it would have likely been overshadowed by playoff races.
Striking Distance
Dan:
- Thanks to a great comeback performance by Josh Beckett last night – and some help from the suddenly fearsome Toronto Blue Jays – the Red Sox have pulled to within three games in the loss column of division-leading Tampa Bay. Three games is an important mark, as it can be made up with one big series (next week?), and can certainly be made up over the course of the next three-plus weeks. Of course, right now it looks like both the Sox and the Devil Rays are headed to October, but – as I pointed out in my previous post – winning the division this year may be more important to the playoffs than most previous years.
- You have to be excited by the way things are shaping up for the Red Sox. Their lineup right now is stacked from top to bottom with players who can hit (except Coco Crisp). Varitek has been playing great, Kotsay is a great pickup, and we still have Youkilus and Drew out of the lineup, and Lowell is just coming back now. Meanwhile, the starting pitching is shaping up to be in top form come October. Expect the Sox to play it safe with Beckett for the rest of September, keeping his innings down, and maybe even skipping a start late in the month. If he is ready to go full-steam come the playoffs, it could be lights out for everyone else. Lester is pitching like a 1A. Then having guys like Daisuke and Wakefield filling out the rest of the playoff rotation makes the Sox very deep. (Remember all of Wake’s great playoff performances in years past.) The bullpen has questions, but so does every other team’s. And I’ll take my chances with guys like Masterson, Delcarmen, Timlin and Okajima leading up to Papelbon. The Sox are starting to click, and I’m having visions of back-to-back titles.
- You have to feel for the Blue Jays. They are playing about as well as anybody in baseball right now. In fact, there have been stretches over each of the past three seasons when they played like an elite team. Unfortunately for them, they’ve been rocked by injuries each season. I’m sure J.P. Riccardi loses a lot of sleep at night thinking about what might have been.
- Could it be both Carlos Zambrano AND Rich Harden are injured for the Chicago Cubbies?? I’m so happy I could cry. But what I find most laughable is how the national media is jumping on this saying this could dash the Cubs’ title hopes. National pundits have been making this season out to be the year of the Cubs all year long. I’ve never been sold on the Cubs. And all the hype about them is just setting Cubs fans up for a heartbreaking October . . . which, I guess, isn’t so bad.
September Jitters
Dan:
We’re just one week from the start of September, and still waiting for the Sox to turn it on — if they are going to turn it on at all this season. An optimist might point to 2004, when they were hopelessly mediocre until August; or maybe last year, when they looked like a sinking ship for most of the second-half, including an ugly sweep by Toronto in early September. Both years, as you know, had a happy ending.
Of course, a pessimist could point to the other 88 seasons since 1918.
Despite our two recent championships, being a longtime Sox fan means one is automatically predisposed to waiting for the roof to cave in. And I can’t help but think the worst as we head into the stretch run.
Overall, the Sox have just looked beat-up and flat this season. Beckett hasn’t been as sharp as he was last year, and now injuries are forcing him to miss starts, including one against the Yanks. Overall, our pitching has been fair, but far from dominant or intimidatingly good. Our rotation is such that we’re making deals for the Paul Byrd’s of the world (which, of course, could end up being a good thing, but I’d rather not have to be making deals to plug rotation holes this time of year). Nagged by injuries, Big Papi is a fraction of himself right now. And J.D. Drew’s back might land him on the DL — which, admit it, you hate to see at this point in the season, but you have also been kind of rooting for it for a year and a half so the Sox have the option of dumping his contract after next season.
But if we have one thing going for us, it might be our competition. The Yanks are currently five back of the Sox in the loss column. With all the games they have together, sure they have a shot to get back in the mix. But, given their own injuries and problems, and given the way these two teams have split games in recent years, you have to think it will be tough for New York to salvage their season. (I know, for a Sox fan, famous last words.) That leaves the White Sox, Twins, Devil Rays and Red Sox battling for three playoff spots. The D-Rays could collapse; we’ve been waiting for them to do it all season. But from our seat five games back, Tampa sure looks like its all but punched its ticket to October. The White Sox are good, but I’m still don’t believe they are this good. And I don’t know how the Twins are still here. If the Red Sox don’t catch fire and instead stay fairly mediocre like they have most of this season, there is still a very good chance either the White Sox and/or Twins will stumble enough in September to get us to the sweet days of October.
I like our chances. But I’m still scared.
What do you expect from a Sox fan?
RED SOX & MLB (by FANS ON THE FIELD .net) 