Dan:

Cleveland
Detroit
Kansas City
Minnesota
Chicago

What a difference a year makes. Last March, Detroit was considered arguably the best team in baseball. Cleveland, coming off a great year, was considered just a hair behind and was seen as an October contender. And the rest of the AL Central looked like a bunch of also-rans who’d be struggling to reach .500.

Of course, Detroit and Cleveland fell off quickly, and it was the White Sox and Twins playing Game 161 to decide the division. Baseball is a funny sport.

Picking this division this year is an exercise in futility. Anybody can win it — anybody. And anybody can finish dead last — anybody. From top to bottom, this division is even. Every team has strengths, and each has glaring weaknesses and questions. So despite analyzing each of their rosters, picking how the AL Central would wind up came down mostly to gut feeling and guesses. And, since logic often doesn’t prevail in baseball, I’d say the division has a great chance to end up like this.

Detroit has some studs in their lineup, with Cabrera and Ordonez. They have some great arms in their rotation in Verlander and Bonderman, if they can stay healthy; great potential in young arms Galaragga and Edwin Jackson, and an arm that could be good if the head gets straightened out in Dontrelle Willis. But all around, they lack depth — in their lineup, their rotation, and their bullpen. They could have a great year, but they have so many questions, I see them coming up just shy of Cleveland.

The Indians had a down year last year, but could rebound to be very good this year. They have one of the game’s best in Grady Sizemore, with a good but not great supporting cast. And its hard to say for sure what Cleveland can expect this year from Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner. Each could be great; each could struggle. Fausto Carmona is coming off a lost season. But overall I like the Indians pitching depth, which includes Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, and one-time uber-prospect Anthony Reyes, who could finally be poised to have that overdue breakout year. They also have a better bullpen than Detroit.

The rest of the division could also make a run. The Royals don’t have the big names the other teams do, but they have the young talent that could make for a Tampa Bay like run. Zack Grienke could show himself as an elite talent this year. And the lineup is stacked with great prospects who have yet to live up to their potential — guys like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler — but could shine at any moment. And KC has a shutdown closer. But overall I don’t like the depth of their rotation. Yet I think low expectations and young talent will carry them to third.

The Twins have Morneau and Mauer, and who knows if Delmon Young will finally live up to his promise. But with Mauer’s health concerns and the rest of the lineup that won’t scare anyone, I don’t see them repeating last year’s success. And their starting pitching depth isn’t what it needs to be. Meanwhile, I just don’t like the White Sox. They traded Javier Vazquez, dealt Nick Swisher for a bag of balls, and the rest of their team’s core — Konerko, Dye, Pierzynski, Buerlhe — have all seen their best days come and go. Expect them to go from first to worst . . . or win it all. It’s just that kind of division.